Bayesian shipwreck, the keel hypothesis raised: “Perhaps human error caused the shipwreck”

A reconstruction of the wreck of the Palermo on the Financial Time he points to the keel of the Bayesian yacht. More precisely, to the movable or retractable keel (or movable centerboard) mounted on the boat. The theory is that the Porticciolo sinking was caused by human error. According to data from the manufacturer Perini Navi, the movable keel is a system that lowers the keel to a depth of 10 meters. The Perini Navi document provides the dimensions of the keel in the raised position (4.05 meters) and in the lowered position (9.83 meters).

If the daggerboard had been completely lowered, the boat would have had greater stability. However, if it had been raised rather than fully deployed, it would have compromised the stability of the boat in strong winds. For this reason, the British newspaper hypothesizes an error on the part of the captain. Or the impossibility of using the technique due to the speed of the waterspout: there was no time to lower it, because it takes at least half an hour to complete the operation.

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