Three years after the start of the war in Burma a small glimmer of peace seems to open. China plays a mediating role: whether for economic interests or to ease Asian tensions, this first step is beginning to give rise to hope for change in this country which seems to have been forgotten by average.
The situation in Myanmar before the war
The political situation in Myanmar has always been complicated since its independence from the British Empire in 1948. The political system allows the military to have great influence in Parliament. In fact, 25% of seats are occupied by military personnel chosen by the Ministry of Defense. The various attempts to remove political power from the army have not borne fruit. Since 2012, Myanmar's military power has been guilty of numerous crimes, including genocide against the Islamic minority known as Rohingya. All this happened under the government of Aung San Suu Kyi. (president de facto, not elected president due to a clause in the constitution which prevents those who have children of foreign nationality from ruling the country). His government has tried in recent years to establish true democracy and erode the power of the army.
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The start of the war in Myanmar
Officially, Myanmar was slowly becoming a democracy. However, the military, in a coup, took power in February 2021. Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested along with democratic leaders, accused of voter fraud in the 2020 elections.. His party, the National League for Democracy, won the majority of the vote, with 67% of the vote. The population rebelled against this decision, but the military responded with violence and the arrest of more than 15,000 people. In response to this, various ethnic militias were formed to fight the army and restore democracy to the country. The central government is gradually losing ground in the conflict, but he became even more brutal towards the population to maintain power. Meanwhile, the various ethnic groups that rebelled against the army remain divided into various factions, each with their own interests, while the army still controls the country's largest centers.
A new turning point in the war
The year 2024 opens with important developments for this war. Ethnic groups fighting against military rule united and they launched an offensive in the north of the country, on the border with China. The offensive led to the liberation of 12 urban centers and reignited the rebellion against the military government.
The operation aims to fight against criminal groups who traffic people to commit fraud online. China is interested in dismantling them because it trafficks Chinese citizens and then hires them to commit scams. online. The Chinese presence therefore proves fundamental in changing the cards at stake in this match.
Myanmar's vision for a democratic future is different from the flawed democracy that led to the problems it faces today.. An example is the election of the ethnic prime minister Rohingya, Aung Kyaw Moe. Before this war, I Rohingya not only could they not run for office, but they were not even recognized as citizens. If rebel ethnic groups defeat the military government, there will be a Myanmar that gives voice to all its people. Only with time will it be possible to see whether the dream of a united and democratic Myanmar will become a reality.
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