Fratelli d'Italia increased its percentage in the European elections compared to the legislative elections. But in absolute terms he got fewer votes. The ballots reserved the same fate for all the parties competing on June 8 and 9. Except two: the Democratic Party and the Green Left Alliance. And once again: the collapse of participation, for the first time below 50%, was largely paid for by the 5 Star Movement. Which lost two million votes. Meanwhile, Giorgia Meloni's party collects votes from Forza Italia and Lega and also intercepts some that come from the Broken Third Pole. Overall, analysts believe, a very marked bipolarization emerges from the elections to the European Parliament. But with one important difference: the center-right already has a coalition. This is not the case for the center-left.
Voting numbers
Comparing voting figures in absolute terms significantly changes the assessment of the results of the European elections. FdI obtained 6 million 704 thousand votes and won a percentage close to 29%. But he loses nearly six hundred thousand preferences compared to 2022, where he won 7 million 300 thousand. Same result for Forza Italia (2 million and 237 thousand votes against 2 million and 279 thousand) and the Lega (two million votes against 2 million and 400 thousand). The most impressive collapse is that of the M5. Which, two years ago, brought in 4.3 million votes and, over the weekend, 2.3 million. Only two parties are going against the trend: the PD and Elly Schlein's Avs. The party of Fratoianni and Bonelli benefits from the candidacy of Ilaria Salis and wins one and a half million votes, or 500 thousand compared to the 2022 elections. The Democrats obtained 5 million and 604 thousand votes, or 250 thousand more than in the elections of two. a few years ago, there were 5.3 million.
Flows
Then there are the vote streams. The imprint He explains today that, according to the Cattaneo Institute, the growth of the FdI and the Pd comes from a stable voter base, while both parties draw on the Third Pole to grow. The success of Fi depends largely on Sicily. And the preferences of Edy Tamajo, who won 120,000 votes. According to Swg, Meloni gains votes from the League and Forza Italia, while Avs takes them away from Conte and the Democratic Party. Which borrows them from grillini, Italia Viva and Azione. 35% of voters who voted for the M5 in the 2022 elections chose to abstain during this electoral round. The percentage drops to 30% for the former Terzo Polo. According to Youtrend's Lorenzo Pregliasco, the fall of the grillini is due to the loss of support in the southern regions and on the islands, where they are almost halved.
Center-right and center-left
Overall, explains today Republic, the center-right is stable at 47%. In southern Italy, Viva e Azione mitigated the defeat thanks to positive results in Basilicata and Campania. The League also increases its votes in the South. “The proportional vote ended up favoring the center-left,” believes Pregliasco. The Democratic Party has made an anti-Giorgia surge. Avs thanks to identity voting (Salis) and youth. “The Democratic Party mobilized its faithful in 80 percent of cases compared to politicians, the Brothers of Italy in 50 to 60 percent,” explains political scientist Roberto D'Alimonte. “Their growth, combined with that of the Alleanza Verdi Sinistra, is the product of a fairly uniform trend throughout the national territory,” explains Salvatore Vassallo del Cattaneo.
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