182 seats and a victory that may have been useless. Jean-Luc Mélenchon's New Popular Front won the largest number of parliamentarians in the next National Assembly in the second round of elections in France. The results and final data from the Ministry of the Interior indicate that out of 577 deputies, those of the NFP will be 192. Ensemble, Emmanuel Macron's party, obtained 168. While the National Rally of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, despite the alliance with part of the Republicans, it is third with 143 elected deputies. But if the figures indicate that the president has unexpectedly won his bet by calling early elections after the defeat in the European elections, a headache now opens up for the government. No one is in sufficient numbers to form an autonomous majority. On July 18, the deputies will have to elect the president of the Chamber. And there, we will see if a coalition will also be possible.
The results of the elections in France
The final data on the elections in France published by the Ministry of the Interior indicate that the NFP deputies will be 182 out of a total of 577. Immediately after, in the ranking of the groupings, there will be the centrist formation of Macron Ensemble, which took 168. Rn yes, it stopped at 143 elected deputies despite the alliance with Ciotti. According to the calculations of the newspaper The worldWithin the New Popular Front, Mélenchon's France Insoumise is the most represented with 74 elected representatives plus 3 “dissidents” from the party. The Socialist Party will have 59 deputies and the Ecologists 28. The Communist Party elected 9 parliamentarians and Génération.S 5. None of the parties and coalitions therefore reached the absolute majority, set at 289 deputies. The reversal of the predictions was made possible thanks to the abandonment. But the scenario of the blocked Parliament was the most popular after the farewell to triangulations.
The new government
According to the background information that has been circulating in recent days, Macron had a plan in mind. That of entrusting Bardella with the post of Prime Minister even if the RN had not obtained an absolute majority. Seeing him fail and thus “vaccinating” the French against Le Pen. From this point of view, the plan has failed. And the birth of a new government is becoming a real headache for him. Mélenchon had already ruled out an alliance with the Macronists last night: “The will of the people must be respected. The president must accept defeat and ask the New Popular Front to govern.” The socialist leader Olivier Faure instead opened up: “A coalition is necessary.” While for Raphaël Glucksmann, head of Place Publique, “now we have to behave like adults.” The Macronists also vetoed the alliance with the left. And it is precisely from there that we can begin to imagine a new coalition.
“Macron won the bet”
Political scientist Gilles Kepel says today: National newspaper that Macron won the bet “because apparently his component remains essential to the formation of the majority”. The professor also predicts a majority without the radical left. That is to say composed of Macronists, Republicans and moderate left. The same one that governs Europe today with the Populars, the Socialists and the Liberals. “The withdrawal was clearly decided to prevent the victory of the RN. The voters of the left went to vote for moderate candidates and vice versa against the danger of a victory of the extreme right. Which nevertheless represents something foreign and contrary to the recent history of the post-war Republic, born of the Free France of Charles de Gaulle, while they are in some way the heirs of the Vichy Republic of Philippe Pétain.”
The left in government without Mélenchon
Kepel explains that “Mélenchon has voluntarily declared victory and that he hopes to be summoned to receive the post of Prime Minister. However, the chamber is more or less divided into three large components, with an important role that the Republicans can play in the event of supporting a government.” The political scientist affirms that in his own way “Macron has managed to remain at the center of the game and we still have to ally ourselves with him for the moment. It is not yet possible to say how to form a majority.”
Also Gilles Gressani, director of The Great Continentsaid one Republic that the path to follow for a coalition executive is mapped out: “Julius Caesar said that Gaul was divided into three. The political space in France remains tripartite. One of the blocs can only obtain an absolute majority if the other two blocs allow it to. It is clear that the centrists and the left have not allowed this to happen in the National Rally, which is growing significantly by doubling its seats, but which is moving far, too far, from an absolute majority.”
France divided into three parts
Gressani explains that the absence of an absolute majority creates an unprecedented structure in the history of the Fifth Republic. But a coalition government is possible: “In the Fifth Republic, there has long been a possible alternation between the left and the right, with the center holding the balance. Macron reversed this logic by governing from the center. Like a wrecking ball, it took the space of the Socialist Party in 2017 and immediately moved to the right to take the space of the Gaullists. Now that this central bloc is weakened and that both the right and the left have far stronger extremes than the traditional parties, who can make the alternation? This is the trap in which France finds itself today. If a grand coalition government excludes the extremes, the RN but also France Insoumise, the idea of the besieged “rational” center governing against part of Parliament is revived.
Marine Le Pen and the 2027 presidential race
The news agency Afp Let us recall that after Mélenchon's closure, Glucksmann had shown himself to be much more open: “We will have to talk, we will have to discuss, we will have to dialogue” before this “divided” Assembly, explained the president of Place publique. The NFP program, which provides for the repeal of the pension reform on the minimum wage at 1,600 euros, does not seem compatible with the ambitions of the presidential camp. At the same time, we will know a lot about the distribution of political groups and the distribution of key positions in the National Assembly with the election of the future president on July 18.
The outgoing Yaël Braun-Pivet, re-elected in Yvelines, continues to believe in reconfirmation. Within the RN, at 28 years old, the president of the movement Jordan Bardella must recognize the failure of his “Matignon plan”. Which once again came up against the “republican front” despite a clear increase in seats. But the RN victory is “only postponed” and “the tide continues to rise”, hopes Marine Le Pen. Still a candidate for the presidency in 2027.
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