From this evening the Atlantic is a little narrower. In the West Bank, for weeks, Donald Trump's advance in the race for the White House has seemed more and more unstoppable. But it is on the eastern shore of the ocean, much less observed, in Portugal, that a worthy emulator of magnate Americans recorded an overwhelming majority of “real” votes yesterday. This provides a historic boost to the Portuguese political system and sends another signal – yet another – of the earthquake that could shake the European system in June. André Ventura, 41, a former law professor, tax inspector and commentator, is the charismatic leader of Chega, the Lusitano sovereignist party which defied predictions by winning 18% of the vote in yesterday's early elections. Opposite, the two traditional pillars of the political system, which are similar only in name: the Social Democratic Party (center-right) and the Socialist Party (center-left). The latter, in government for more than eight years under the leadership of António Costa, is clearly the loser of the first elections, called after Costa's resignation due to the corruption scandal which hit some of his close friends. Now led by his protégé Pedro Nuno Santos, the Socialists stop at 28.6%, or 77 seats. A little more, but much “heavier”, those brought back by the center-right led by Luis Montenegro, who, with 79 seats (pending those of the Portuguese abroad), can be considered the real winner of the elections. But if it is true that the two parties have alternated with almost arithmetic regularity at the head of the country since the transition to democracy (1976), it is clear that the real surprise at the polls is the boom of Chega .
Recipe for success
“Tireless in his goal of changing Portugal,” reads Ventura’s laconic biography of X. Chega (“Enough!”) coined it himself in 2019, leaving the Social Democratic Party (center right) and feeling the anti-elite political climate of the Trump, Brexit and 5 Star years. The main ingredients of the recipe, now well known to many European sovereignist parties: a hard line on illegal immigration and culture. wake up a left that undermines Western values. And then again the tax cuts, decorum, “no ifs or buts” support for the police and the toughening of the penal code, with the introduction of life imprisonment (today non-existent), the chemical castration of repeat rapists and (second party members) the death penalty. Condiments to use for this purpose: racist tones against minorities like LGBTQ+, Roma and Muslims and condescending towards Salazar's fascist regime. Inside the party, nostalgic people feel at home, and Ventura himself played with the fire of the past by having himself photographed several times with a contrite face and an outstretched arm. Roman greeting? No, “a symbol of equality” with the supporters, said the leader himself, for those who want to believe it. While the party's motto differs from Salazar's by adding one word: “God, homeland, family and work.” On the other hand, to attract the good graces of the conservative electorate in a country with a strong Catholic base, Ventura has multiplied over the years even more aggressive provocations, such as the “proposal” to remove the ovaries of women who have abortions. or that of removing public funds for gender equality.
It's economics, stupid
Bullets of political artillery good to be fired (or made to be fired by one's supporters) at unsuspecting moments, then finding a way to hide the hand, deny, or simply correct course when more convenient. This is what Ventura did during the last electoral campaign, and the choice seems to have been a happy one: by leaving aside the most characteristic themes of the far right, the former sports commentator bet everything on frustration millions of citizens facing low wages. and pensions, eroded by inflation, in the face of corruption which has repeatedly affected the country's elites, the last and most striking with the scandal which brought down the center-left government. “See that empty plate? It's the one around which many Portuguese families gather every evening, while the banks have fun”, says Chega in one of the last videos of his electoral campaign. A very “concrete” demagogic line which, in certain regions of the country, as in the southern district of Faro, earned Chega's hardliners even more than 27% of the vote. And this despite (or perhaps precisely because) throughout the electoral campaign, no only the center-left but also the center-right had erected the classic “sanitary cordon” around the ultra-right, promising never, ever, to collaborate with it.
Government puzzle
Will Montenegro keep its word? We'll see from now on. Taking Ventura under his arm, figures in hand, would be the simplest way to address the government directly. Not to mention the only one. Unless, of course, you want to break another historical taboo and instead strike a deal with your socialist adversaries. In the first statements of the following daytoday, the center-right leader seems to be talking about a third way, that of a possible minority government. “I hope that the PS and Chega will not now form a negative alliance to prevent (the birth of, ed) the government that the Portuguese demand,” he declared to his supporters this morning. The negotiations, of which the President of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa (from the same party as Montenegro) will be the “arbiter”, could be long and complicated, and if they do not succeed, they could even lead to a return at the polls. . A prospect that Chega, on closer inspection, already considers to be anything but unfavorable. “In six months, a year or two, we will win the elections,” Ventura chanted into the night in front of an audience of cheering Chega activists. The wind, for the moment, is on his side. Like that, with a broader perspective, of his relatives like Geert Wilders in Holland (stuck in the negotiations after the November victory in Holland), Santiago Abascal in Spain (very quick to celebrate the success of his Iberian teammate) or Jordan Bardella in France (the descendant of Marine Le Pen's party whose anti-Macron campaign in the European elections seems unstoppable).
Italian friends
And in Italy? Who does the 41-year-old sovereignist, now endowed with political fortune, fraternize with? For the moment, between Meloni and Salvini, he chose the latter: Chega is in fact part of the political family of Identity and Democracy, the same one of which the League is one of the pillars. The leader of the Northern League was therefore quick to jump on the winning train this morning: “Congratulations to his friend and ally André Ventura for the extraordinary success of Chega, alone against everyone – posted Salvini on X -. The wind of change is blowing strong across Europe, waiting for June 9.” Whether in Italy it costs three or four times more for Fratelli d'Italia's internal competitors is another matter.
Read also:
