Israel and Hezbollah continue to exchange heavy artillery fire and threatening messages of war exactly one week after the Israeli raid on Beirut that hit and killed the number 2 of the Shiite militia, Fuad Shukr. The Jewish state has been waiting for days for retaliation from its enemies, made even more “necessary” by another targeted assassination carried out a few hours later, that of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh eliminated in the heart of Tehran. The worrying wait continues. This morning, in the north of the Jewish state, the sirens sounded for a long time to signal the frequent launches of drones and rockets from Lebanon. The most serious consequences occurred just south of the city of Nahariya, on the Mediterranean coast, where several people were injured by shrapnel from a rocket. A quick internal investigation by the Israeli military then clarified that it was a mistake on its part: an IDF interceptor rocket itself fell by mistake on Nahariya, which “missed the target and fell to the ground, injuring several civilians.” and there were reportedly injuries. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attack but said it was targeting military targets. According to American officials, Tel Aviv will face two waves of attacks: one from the Iranians and one from Lebanese Shiite militias. Local newspapers also reported injuries in the town of Mazra'a, on the northwest coast. The alert in the country, particularly in the north, remains at maximum, with civilians (those who have not been evacuated for some time) being asked to stay close to a bunker.
Hezbollah's stamp and Israel's response
Hezbollah claimed to have launched a swarm of drones against Israel today, but stressed that they had targeted “military targets” and that today's attack should not be seen as retaliation for the assassination of Fouad Shukr. Rather, it should be understood – a source in the militia told Reuters – in response to an Israeli attack this morning in southern Lebanon in which four Hezbollah fighters died. In the afternoon, in response, Israeli planes flew low over Beirut, twice breaking the sound barrier, according to local witnesses, causing panic. An ominous warning issued just before the scheduled speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Nasrallah and the “contained” reprisals
Breaking his silence for the first time since the elimination of his right-hand man, Nasrallah confirmed that “our response will come and will be strong, alone or as part of a collective response from the entire front. The main thing is that there is determination, decision and capacity.” No indication of the what, how and when of the retaliation. The old Shiite leader limited himself to observing that “the (Israeli) wait is part of the punishment, the response and the battle which is also psychological.” However, as on other occasions from October 7, Nasrallah once again hinted that he did not want to start a real war with Israel, even after the elimination of Shukr and Haniyeh. “It is the Israelis who are looking for escalation. We have always taken into account the situation in Lebanon and managed the battle in such a way as to maintain an open support front and full music festivals and restaurants.” Hence the call to Hezbollah activists and supporters not to be impulsive: “We will build our future together.”
Iranian maneuvers and “advice” from Moscow.
Meanwhile, on the Iranian front, the the wall street journal reported this morning that some anonymous US officials had seen Iran moving the missile launchers. Military exercises have been underway since last weekend. According to US intelligence, the most likely scenario would be two waves of attacks, the first from Hezbollah – it is not clear whether this can already be assumed – and the second from Iran. President Joe Biden and his deputy and current 2024 presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, have been briefed on this scenario. Vladimir Putin was also expected to speak today about what should (and should not) happen. According to Reutersthe Russian president reportedly advised Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to respond with moderation to Haniyeh's killing, explicitly advising against attacking Israeli civilians. The message, according to two senior Iranian sources, was delivered by former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who met with new President Massoud Pezeshkian and Army Chief of Staff Mohammad Bagheri Shoigu in Tehran yesterday.
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