As the collection of signatures for the referendum against differentiated autonomy begins, with the commitment of all the centre-left forces with their respective leaders in the matter, two major newspapers wonder if there will ever be a quorum of voters to validate the consultation. Ipsos for Corriere della Sera and Noto Sondaggi for Repubblica give two diametrically opposed results. For the first, the quorum is still far away (only 33 percent will vote), for the second institute on the other hand, at least 55 percent of Italians will go to the polls.
Noto's analysis on Repubblica
According to the Noto polls, “55% of Italians currently intend to vote, so if this estimate, established by the Noto Sondaggi per Repubblica polling institute, is respected, the referendum has a good chance of being valid, even by a good margin”. “. Those who vote support the opposition parties: “from 68% of Democratic Party voters to 95% of supporters of the left-wing Green Alliance. However, it should also be noted that the propensity to enter the polling booth also concerns 68% of Forza Italia voters (the same percentage as the Democrats), while among FdI supporters it falls to 44% and among supporters of the Northern League it reaches 58%. . “. Turnout varies from North to South. While in the last European elections abstentionism reigned supreme in the South, in the case of the referendum on differentiated autonomy, 68% of citizens will go to the southern regions of Italy.
Nando Pagnoncelli's analysis on Corriere
Ipsos is decidedly more pessimistic: “only a third seem determined to participate in a possible consultation, while 26% do not exclude it but are uncertain. With these figures, according to our experience,
turnout is still far from the threshold.” Furthermore, the survey highlights that Italians actually know very little about the reform: “only 16% say they are sufficiently informed, while 29% have had the opportunity to hear some news and the remaining 55% have heard about it without really knowing what it is about or they are ignorant of it”. There are no major territorial differences: “58% of decided voters are in favour of repeal, 42% of confirmation. It is certainly too early to say anything concrete about the referendum vote. For the moment, we can say that the attention paid to this subject is not increasing.”
(on the cover, the banquet to collect signatures for the referendum against differentiated autonomy, organized by the CGIL, San Filippo Neri hospital, Rome, July 20, 2024. ANSA/FABIO FRUSTACI)
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