It seems that Meloni can consider the upcoming European elections as a victory. On June 8 and 9, 2024, EU citizens are called to vote in their respective countries to renew the European Parliament. And the Italian Prime Minister today – March 19 – set the bar at 26 percent for Fratelli d'Italia: “For me, it would be a victory to confirm the result that brought me to government,” he said. -she declared in an interview with Agora. According to the Ipsos survey carried out exclusively for Euronews, Fratelli d'Italia will obtain 27 percent, easily outpacing its opponents. Elly Schein's Democratic Party will stop at one point below 20%, followed by the 5 Star Movement just above 17%. The other two majority parties, Lega and Forza Italia, are tied at 8%. The only other party that will exceed the threshold, according to the Ipsos projection, is the Green Left Alliance, while Italia Viva, Azione and +Europa are expected to stay out of the European Parliament. FdI will therefore express 24 MEPs, 17 Pd and 16 5 stars, then 7 each for Forza Italia and Lega and 4 for Avs.
The right is progressing in Europe
But what does the data say compared to other countries? The clearest result, if confirmed, is that of Marine Le Pen's National Rally, now led by Jordan Bardella. The far-right party gets 30.7%, up more than 7 percentage points from five years ago, while Together! of President Macron stops at 18%. The smiles return to the Socialists, considered the third party, who with 12 percent of the votes would obtain their best result in the European elections since 2014. Then come, between 8 and 7%, the Greens, the Republicans and La France Insoumise. . In Germany, the CDU-CSU is in the lead, with 29% of the vote, while Chancellor Scholz's party, which obtained 25% in the federal elections, is collapsing. In June, according to Ipsos, it will stop at 17%, just 1 percentage point above the far-right AfD, paired with the Greens. In Poland, the party of new President Donald Tusk is smiling. In 2019, the Law and Justice party (PiS) obtained 45% of the seats, while according to the survey, Tusk's KO civic coalition would emerge as the first party with 31.2%, followed by PiS with 29, 2%. Further behind is the government's other ally, Third Way, which will get 16.5%.
The new majority
More generally, according to Euronews' analysis of state-by-state polls in member countries of the Union, we will witness a progression of far-right and ultra-conservative parties, which could obtain a fifth of the total seats for the ballot. first time. Center-right parties will also gain points and seats: “If Viktor Orban's Fidesz party is accepted by the group of European Conservatives and Reformists, made up of its allies, Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy and the Polish party PiS, it could reach an agreement with the EPP”, explains Euronews. Nevertheless, according to data collected less than three months after the vote, the most stable majority that could form in the European Chamber will again be that between the Party center-right European Popular Party (EPP) and Renew Europe, which includes socialists, democrats and liberals. -The Democrats, as in the last five years: they would retain 398 seats out of a total of 720.
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