Elections in France, Macron's bet and the two scenarios for the EU: “Le Pen with Meloni and the League can destroy it”

He will not resign even in the event of defeat. But play to win. After the decision to call new elections to the National Assembly for June 30, Emmanuel Macron will reveal today at a press conference his plan to obtain a “clear majority” for the remainder of his five-year term. “I run to win,” he said Le Figaro, adding that he wanted to “reach all those who are ready to govern” with him. And excluding resignation in the event of an unfavorable outcome of the polls. Certainly, the polls place him as an outsider for the moment: the National Rally is at 35%, the Popular Front at 25%, the outgoing majority is stuck at 18%. And the Republicans, for their part, are opening up to Marine Le Pen, even if Eric Ciotti's decision plunges the party into crisis.

The two scenarios

At the same time, Sylvie Goulard, president of the Franco-German institute of Ludwisgburg, with the Corriere della Sera prefigures two scenarios for the post-electoral period in France. The first is the one which sees an RN majority with Bardella as Prime Minister, the other a Parliament blocked without a majority: “If there was not a clear majority in the National Assembly, Macron could govern with article 49.3 as he did in principle. has already done so over the past two years, perhaps foregoing major reforms. Of course, from a political point of view it would be a very difficult situation, perhaps with a “third round” on the street, but the legal tools to move forward still exist.” Goulard also puts forward two hypotheses on the possible consequences on Europe of a victory for Bardella and Marine Le Pen, also warning that a French rejection of the EU could become dangerous.

Bardella likes Meloni?

According to Goulard “there is a scenario that could be described as Italian, with Giorgia Meloni who before coming to power was very critical of France and Europe but who then agreed to to sit at the European table, she received, without complaining as much as I could. see, the large amounts of Pnrr, discovered that Europe can help, and so far this has become normalized. The RN could start to do the same: a normalization which is not enough to keep Europe alive, but it would at least reduce the damage.” The other scenario is “the one that I fear the most: the horse scenario of Troy, anti-European parties like the RN or the League or recently converted like the Brothers of Italy who enter the system and end up destroying it either voluntarily or because they are incapable of making difficult decisions, particularly in budgetary terms, leading to the collapse of the currency and the single market.

The Rings

Even on the RN side, there are alliance problems. The one with Eric Zemmour's Reconquest, explains the AFP, failed. The Lepénians reject the very principle of an agreement not to be associated with Eric Zemmour, declared Marion Maréchal, Le Pen's niece. The four main left-wing parties (LFI, PS, Ecologists, PCF), as well as the Place publique movement of Raphaël Glucksmann and Générations, are demanding “single candidacies from the first round”. But the choice of a leader remains an unknown. At the same time, yesterday, for the third evening in a row, the left found itself in the streets – in République in the case of Paris, but rallies took place throughout the country – to demonstrate against the far right. A daily rhythm which is reminiscent of that of 2002, when Jean-Marie Le Pen entered the presidential election for the first time.

The specter of 2002

At the time, throughout France, for two weeks, parties took to the streets every evening to demonstrate for the Republican Front, which then gave the largest victory to Jacques Chirac. At the foot of the Republican headquarters, at the exit of Ciotti, there were scuffles because of the protest of an environmentalist deputy who shouted “shame” and some young people from the Union of Jewish Students of France who were protesting against the capitulation in front of Le Pen.

Read also:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *