Ursula von der Leyen reveals that Emmanuel Macron has a plan for the elections in France. It is for this reason that the decision to vote was dictated by a tactical calculation. Which would aim to demonstrate that the French right does not know how to govern. Von der Leyen spoke at a meeting of CDU leaders on June 10. And second Republic, he thus made a blunder. Because the outgoing president of the European Commission affirmed in front of a small audience that Macron's objective was “entzauberung”, or disenchantment with Marine Le Pen. The head of the Elysée, according to this scenario, would aim to awaken the French to the charm of the far right by simply letting the National Rally govern.
Entzauberung
There is then a second reasoning put forward by von der Leyen which concerns French single-member constituencies. From this perspective, Macron would aim for a surge of pride on the part of the French during the second round of the elections. But there is also a third scenario, that of Macron-Le Pen cohabitation. Macron denied that his decision to lead the country to elections corresponded to a prospect of “vaccinating” the French against the far right. The last cohabitation was between Jacques Chirac and François Mitterrand. “But if there really is cohabitation, that means that the National Rally will be able to access the Elysée in 2027,” explains an anonymous source present at the meeting. The president's strategy, according to the source, would also aim to denounce the unnatural alliance that is being formed on the left.
Macron and Le Pen
“This is the first time that social democratic forces have joined forces with anti-capitalist forces – they emphasize in the president's entourage – on a common program which leads to 300 billion in additional public spending, with new taxes , in the context of serious geopolitical ambiguities and on the vision of society. Meanwhile, Macron himself throws water on the fire in the conflicts with Italy: “For my part, there is no desire for controversy. For nothing. I want us to move forward effectively in our international work. I said it, I thank the Italian presidency, I think that we should no longer give it any room. We know our disagreements, I have not put them on the table. I responded honestly, like others, to one of your Italian colleagues, no more, no less”, he responded to a journalist on the controversy on the subject of abortion and on the campaign accusations for the G7 elections highlighted in the Italian press.
Macron's resignation
But there are also those who raise a specter. Or that of Macron's farewell in the event of an incontestable victory for the RN. Alain Minc, shadow advisor to the president, said this explicitly today in an interview. “I thought he wouldn’t finish his second term, but I didn’t think so, not with a crazy move,” Minc begins. What happened, according to him, “is a psychological problem, the result of Macron’s narcissism, taken to the extreme. Maybe he believes in his magic touch, but it's disconcerting. He does not want to admit that he is not only unpopular, but also hated by part of the population. Imagine turning the situation around. He has always been a poker player. When he plays with his career, that's his business. When he attacks the destiny of the country, it is unforgivable. »
Emmanuel's narcissism
And this because “I am told that the day before the vote, Macron repeated that his list would obtain 22%. It was poorly advised. He never wanted anyone around him to stand up to him. It is absurd and disconcerting that such an important decision could be made by a single man, surrounded by courtiers. » Minc's perspective is that of cohabitation: “Le Pen has political flair. If he thought that the presidential elections would be in three years, he would not let Bardella enter the government. In three years, he would risk failing to power and it is she who would pay the consequences. Le Pen is probably betting that the presidential elections will be first.”
Cohabitation
However, cohabitation will be very complicated. It works when there are two experienced politicians who know the tricks of the trade. I am convinced that at some point Macron will have to resign. But I don't think Le Pen will be elected president. It depends on what's on the other side. The natural candidate will be Gérard Larcher (the president of the Senate, ed), because if Macron resigns, he will act as interim and, with the elections three weeks later, he will have a natural advantage.” However, he concludes, “France is not threatened by fascism. Let's be serious. I think we must fight Le Pen for 4 reasons: she is viscerally anti-American, she is rather anti-European, she hates counter-powers and she has a socialist vision of the economy. The economic damage will be real. not dramatic. The international damage to France's image will be considerable and the French, arrogant and proud, will not appreciate that.
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