The elections called for July 7, after President Raisi's fatal accident, declared the victory of President Massoud Pezeshkian. Today in IranThe new president marks the return of a reformist candidate to the country's most important elected office since 2005.
His election breaks the domination of the conservatives, who nevertheless continue to resist in other Iranian institutions. After the tragic death of the former president, the domestic political situation suddenly accelerated. Raisi was the expression of the ultra-conservative component of Iranian politics and was seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
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After a brief overview of the Iranian scenario, we report the interview that buonnotizie.it conducted for you with Dr. Stefano Maria Torelli on the change that Pezeshkian can initiate in Iran. Torelli is a researcher and trainer ofEuropean Asylum Support Office (EASO), former analyst of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regions, also worked as coordinator at Inspire school and as a political analyst for World Wonks.
Factors that contributed to Pezeshkian's victory
The election of President Massoud Pezeshkian was favoured by a combination of factors, firstly, internal conflicts between conservative and radical factionsDespite Supreme Leader Khamenei's attempt to heal divisions, the two factions failed to put forward a single candidate against the reformists.
The second factor is related to The Guardian Council gives the green light to the reformist candidacyThe choice marks an attempt to counteract the decline in popular participation in previous elections.
Finally, the large number of votes obtained by Pezeshkian, despite the low turnout, demonstrates that Many Conservative voters may have decided not to vote or even to give their vote to the Reformers.
The Role of the President in Today's Iran
The political structure on which the Iranian system is based is complex and multipolar.The system has three elected bodies: the Parliament, the Assembly of Experts and the President. At the top of the system is Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is responsible for overseeing and directing Iranian policy, and the Guardian Council.
Presidential candidates must therefore meet constitutional requirements. It is the Guardian Council that authorizes the list of candidates participating in the election.
Once elected, The President asks for the confidence of Parliament, appoints his own ministers, becomes the head of the complex administrative machinecan be consulted and involved by the Supreme Leader in foreign policy decisions.
Dr. Torelli's View on the Change the New President Could Bring to Iranian Policy
Massoud Pezeshkian's victory sparks hopes among part of the Iranian population who hopes for a less radical approach and would like to see a rapprochement with the West.
Stefano Torelli, based on his personal experience, believes that Raisi's fatal accident, at such a delicate moment, prompted the Supreme Leader to admit the candidacy of a reformist like Pezeshkian. According to Torelli, Tehran thought that It will ultimately be necessary to balance the possible victory of Donald Trump in the 2024 American elections, given the precedents set, such as Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
The figure of a moderate like Pezeshkian, Torelli continues, It could reopen the path of dialogue with the West and the United States, to ease the sanctions that affect its economy.
Potential improvements for Iranian women
Regarding the condition of Iranian women, after last year's protests, Torelli believes that its improvement will require a long cultural and social process, especially in autocratic and theocratic systems like Iran. We will therefore only see with time what the concrete signals of the new president could be.
Torelli, however, is optimistic because he says that women represent an important and economically significant component active of Iranian society, which can no longer be ignored and repressed. For the expert, some small encouraging signs are beginning to be observed in other countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia. The Saudi government has in fact encouraged a timid entry of women into the country's economic fabric.
Iran's role in the Israeli-Palestinian Crisis
Finally, in light of the latest Israeli attacks suffered on Iranian territory, Torelli considers these as a serious humiliation to which Iran cannot fail to respond. However, as the expert claims, The Iranian response will not be on a large scalebecause Iran's technological and economic backwardness cannot withstand a head-on confrontation with Israel.
In support of this thesis, last week, according to the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida, Massoud Pezeshkian pressured Khamenei to postpone the planned attack on Israel, pending the outcome of the ceasefire negotiations that have just concluded in Doha in Gaza.
If you want to improve the economic situation and achieve stability throughout the region, Iran should support its president's balanced positions in its relations with all countriesincluding reopening dialogue with the United States, Israel and the West.