In Sardinia, the deadlines for the proclamation of the elected representatives of the Regions are lengthening, given that the counting has still been going on for five days. Data published on the Region's website indicates that 1,825 sections out of a total of 1,844 have been reviewed, of which 19 are still missing. In recent hours, an indiscretion has made its way that the advantage separating Alessandra Todde – Pd-M5s candidate and expected winner – and Paolo Truzzu is diminishing more and more. But is it really possible that there will be a turnaround? “It’s very unlikely,” explains one Open Lorenzo Pregliasco, political analyst and director of YouTrend. Although it was a rather contested election, the votes separating the two candidates numbered in the thousands. Giuseppe Conte, on the sidelines of an event in Pescara, said that the vote margin on which Todde can count “is greater than 1,600”. But according to the center-right, the gap could even fall below a thousand.
The (very improbable) hypothesis of a recount
Regardless of who is right, the fact remains that the gap seems rather difficult to close. “For Truzzu, it is not enough to recover a dozen votes, which could also happen. To recover 1,600, there must have been widespread errors in several seats and especially against him,” comments Pregliasco. The hopes of the center-right are currently focused above all on the control of the contested ballots. The verification is up to the Courts of Appeal , which in the event of inconsistencies in the minutes can correct the results of certain polling stations and redo the sums. According to certain rumors, if the official results show a gap between the two candidates of less than a thousand votes, the center-right could consider appealing to the TAR and requesting a recount. “I don't remember a single case where this question was asked. It's an option that I have never seen carried out,” specifies the director of YouTrend. There have been several very close regional elections: those of 2000 in Molise or those won by Debora Serracchiani in Friuli-Venezia Giulia in 2013. However, in none of these cases was any recount of the ballots successful.
The “spin” of local elected officials
Pending final data on the Sardinian elections, the chances of Truzzu overtaking Todde seem rather low. “If there had really been a margin of change, I don't think that the Prime Minister and the main national political leaders would have spoken out to recognize defeat,” observes Pregliasco. Following this reasoning, the indiscretions of these hours could turn out to be nothing other than an attempt by certain representatives of the Sardinian center-right to give an communicative “spin” to the election results. “I have the impression – concludes the director of YouTrend – that the objective is rather to create a commotion in which people no longer understand who won. And in the background there remains a feeling of confusion.”
Cover photo: ANSA/Fabio Murru | Giuseppe Conte, Alessandra Todde and Elly Schlein celebrate victory in the regional elections in Sardinia (Cagliari, February 27, 2024)
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